Buyback Radar

PancakeSwap CAKE

Sell signal activeRank#35▼1Score35

Sell signal since Oct 30. no variant; REV ratio 0.8×, HR ratio 0.8×. Still open: payout at 22% of its 90-day peak. See Signals.

Dexs, BSC, Ethereum, Polygon zkEVM +9, 192 days of data

Active signals 1

  • Sell signalsince Oct 30

    Revenue over 30 days $3.6M, 71% of the 30 days before ($5.1M).

    Gradual decline over 30 days: revenue this week $766k, 0.8× the week before, paid to holders 0.8× the week before. Still open: payout at 22% of its 90-day peak.

Market cap

$563.6M

price $1.75 · 7d −13.4% · 30d −22.5%

FDV $576.6M (1.0× market cap)

source defillama

Buyback revenue / year

$28.9M

holders revenue of the last 30 days, $2.4M, × 365 ÷ 30

Buyback + burnbuyback share 65%

Buys back 5.1% of its market cap a year, using 65¢ of every $1 it earns.

Our research: paid partly from the treasury, not only from revenue. Nothing is deducted here, because the data does not show how much. See How the buyback really works.

Multiple

19.5×

peer median 19.5× (Dexs, 13 tokens), against 19.5× here

Run-rate

21.8×

last 7 days $496k × 52 = $25.8M a year

last week's payout in line with the 30-day pace

What we checked

  1. Valuation

    Multiple 19.5×, in line with its Dexs peers (median 19.5×, 13 tokens). The group's largest earner Uniswap trades at 37.3×: 1.9× cheaper per dollar returned to holders. On total revenue: 12.8×, 1.3× cheaper than the revenue peer median.

  2. Distribution

    Buyback + burn: Revenue buys the token on the market and the bought tokens are burned. Holders got $2.4M of $3.6M revenue in 30 days → buyback share 65%. Our research says part is paid from the treasury; nothing is deducted, because the data does not show how much. DefiLlama: “Buy Back And Burn CAKE: 50% of revenue will be used to buy back and burn CAKE”

  3. Sustainability

    Holders were paid on 30 of 30 days (100%); largest single day 7% of the month's holders revenue; paid to holders this week: 22% of the best week in 90 days (more than half below peak). Revenue −23% over 7 days and −29% over 30 days, price −22% over 30 days.

What this does not tell you

The figures come from DefiLlama's adapter for each child protocol. Only a few tokens have an on-chain check (see How the buyback really works); for the rest, whether the tokens were really bought, burned or parked in a treasury wallet is not checked here. Unlocks count where DefiLlama or our research has a vesting schedule; team discretion and liquidity depth only once researched.

Flags

  • Sell signalactive since Oct 30; no variant; REV ratio 0.8×, HR ratio 0.8×. Still open: payout at 22% of its 90-day peak. See Signals
  • Payout >50% below peakthis week's holders revenue is 22% of its best week in the last 90 days ($2.3M)
  • Treasury-funded (research)our research says part of the buyback is paid from the treasury. Nothing is deducted here, because the data does not show how much
  • Data issue: chain mapping missingData issue (chain mapping missing): warning, scores are computed as usual

How the buyback really works

Researched Nov 1, 2026 · 3 wallets: 2 high, 1 medium confidence

  1. The moneyPaid partly from revenue, partly from the treasury
  2. The buyerThe team decides when and how much
  3. The tokensBought tokens are burned

The project does not say what share of its revenue goes to buybacks; DefiLlama books 65% of its revenue as holders revenue.

On-chain: not measurable with our sources (BSC is outside Etherscan's free tier and the public BSC RPCs refuse eth_getLogs over 30 days (HTTP 403 / limit exceeded)).

Method: not measurable: BSC is outside Etherscan's free tier and the public BSC RPCs refuse eth_getLogs over 30 days (HTTP 403 / limit exceeded). Checked November 12, 2026.

Red flags 5

  • The burn is a manual, multisig-driven process (weekly, on Mondays). The contract enforces nothing.
  • 'Weekly burn'/'net burn' mixes revenue-funded buybacks with burning undistributed CAKE emissions (40 CAKE per block; the blog says most minted CAKE is burned immediately). Only the fee portion is a real buyback. funding_source is therefore set to 'mixed'.
  • Percentages are expressed as % of trading fees per product (spot 15-23%, perps 20% of profit, CAKE.PAD 100%, lottery 20%), not as % of revenue. DefiLlama allocates them by model (v3: 15% and 23% per tier; Infinity: 50% of revenue) instead of measuring them on-chain.
  • Official monthly burn reports run until early 2026. For October 2026 there are only third-party figures: the weekly net burn fell to about 0.33–0.38M CAKE in the three weeks to mid-October (previously 0.47–0.76M).
  • Burns from 0xceba to 0xdead in October 2026 could not be confirmed on-chain, due to RPC limits.
Buyback wallets 3
Sources 8

Open the buyback wallets in their explorer and look for regular purchases of the token.

Check it yourself (technical)

Etherscan v2 (chainid=56): module=account&action=tokentx&contractaddress=0x0e09...ce82&address=0xceba...4a0e over 30 days. Split inflows by counterparty: inflows from MasterChef v2 (0xa5f8c5dbd5f286960b9d90548680ae5ebff07652) and mints from 0x0 are emissions and NOT buybacks; inflows from routers and fee collectors are the revenue-funded buyback. Outflow from 0xceba to 0x...dEaD is the total burn. Alternatives: the burn dashboard at pancakeswap.finance/burn-dashboard, the Dune dashboard dune.com/pancakeswap/PancakeSwap-CAKE-Tokenomics, or DefiLlama dailyHoldersRevenue (modelled: fixed fee percentages x volume). Burns from Base/Ethereum pools and IFOs are processed monthly. Note: public BSC RPCs (publicnode, bnbchain) returned 403/429 during the check. The 30d burn could not be measured on-chain; a paid API key is required.

Holders revenue / revenue (30d)
$2.4M / $3.6M
last 30 closed days
To holders
Buys back 5.1% of its market cap a year
FDV / dilution
$576.6M / 1.0×
FDV ÷ market cap
Price 7d / 30d
−13.4% / −22.5%
Revenue growth 7d / 30d
−23% / −29%
versus the period before
Divergence
0.00
revenue growth minus price growth, 30d
DEX liquidity
$14.9M
DexScreener, representative pools
24h volume
$38.0M
all markets, CoinGecko
Unlocks 30d
—
DefiLlama's schedule does not cover the next 30 days while tokens are still locked
Revenue multiple
12.8×
market cap ÷ revenue per year
Fee multiple
4.4×
market cap ÷ fees per year
Distance to peak
22%
this week ÷ best week of 90 days
Data since
May 4
first day with holders revenue

Holders revenue and price

Holders revenue per day7-day averagePrice (right axis)▲ ▼ signal days (history below)

Multiple over time

today 19.5× (scored) · peer median 19.5×

Market cap at close ÷ (holders revenue of the previous 30 days × 365 ÷ 30), with holders revenue capped at revenue and × the type factor: the same effective multiple as the peer median. Values above 100× are drawn at the top. Bands as on the meter; dashed line = peer median today.

Signal history

Signal history of this token: date, type, price at the signal, price after 7 and 30 days, change since the signal and the outcome
DateSignalPrice thenAfter 7dAfter 30dSinceOutcome
October 31, 2026Multiple below medianvoided Nov 1: rule change of 1 Nov 2026: it would not open under the current rules$1.94−2%—−10%not counted
October 31, 2026Sell signalactive$1.94−2%—−10%30-day check: day 11

Versus peers

Dexs · 13 tokens · median multiple 19.5× · Uniswap is valued 6.6× higher. Per dollar that counts for holders, PancakeSwap is 1.9× cheaper.

Main-ranking peers only. Multiples count holders revenue capped at revenue, × the type factor (buyback 1 · buyback + burn 1 · burn 0.75 · mixed 0.75 · distribution 0.5 · unclear 0.5 · ve-distribution 0.25).

This token against its main-ranking peers: multiple, revenue multiple, buyback share, holders revenue, market cap and revenue growth
TokenDistributionMultipleRevenue multipleBuyback shareTo holders 30dMarket capRev. growth 30d
Pharaoh Exchangeve / bribes0.3×0.2×100%$1.3M$2.6M−52%
RamsesXMixed0.7×0.5×97%$368k$2.2M+8%
nestDistribution0.8×0.4×100%$869k$4.4M+32%
upve / bribes2.0×1.0×100%$313k$3.9M−68%
ChainflipBuyback + burn5.4×5.4×100%$520k$34.4M+59%
Aerove / bribes8.7×4.0×96%$7.4M$372.0M−6%
PancakeSwapthis tokenBuyback + burn19.5×12.8×65%$2.4M$563.6M−29%
RaydiumBuyback27.1×16.8×62%$1.3M$425.4M−65%
Curve Financeve / bribes29.3×11.1×94%$2.6M$374.4M+44%
UniswapleaderBuyback + burn37.3×37.3×100%$8.2M$3.71B−20%
OrcaBuyback47.8×7.9×16%$130k$75.6M−36%
AsterBuyback + burn50.2×∞—$2.8M$1.69B—
MeteoraDistribution180×5.2×18%$458k$161.9M−60%
Score build-up35 of 100

Total score = 35% valuation + 25% momentum + 20% divergence + 20% quality − penalties, clamped to 0–100. Every number here can be recomputed from the figures on this page.

35of 100#35▼1top 68%
Valuation 19.1Momentum 7.7Divergence 0.0Quality 13.3penalties −5= 35.2
Valuation35%
55Valuation 54.7: HR half 46.6 (multiple 19.51×; 100 at ≤3×, 0 at ≥100×, log scale), revenue half 62.8 (revenue peer value 1.32×; 0 at ≤0.33×, 50 at 1×, 100 at ≥3×, log scale).Average of two halves. HR half: linear in log(multiple), 100 at ≤ 3×, 0 at ≥ 100×, 0 without effective HR. Revenue half: linear in log(revenue peer value), 0 at ≤ 0.33×, 50 at 1×, 100 at ≥ 3×; neutral 50 when the peer group falls back to the universe.
Momentum25%capped
31Momentum 30.8: m = 0.5·g7 −0.262 + 0.3·(ln(day jump 0.80) clamped ±1.5 = −0.227) + 0.2·g30 −0.345 = −0.268; 0 at ≤−0.7, 50 at 0, 100 at ≥1.1.m = 0.5·g7 + 0.3·ln(day jump, clamped ±1.5) + 0.2·g30; 0 at m ≤ −0.7, 50 at 0, 100 at ≥ 1.1. Neutral 50 when g7 or g30 is missing; a missing day jump counts as 0.
Divergence20%capped
0Divergence 0.0: d = g30 − p30 = 0.000; 0 at ≤0, 100 at ≥1.5.d = max(0, g30 − p30) when g30 > 0; 0 at d ≤ 0, 100 at d ≥ 1.5, linear.
Quality20%
67Quality 66.7: mean of days HR>0 100% → 100.0 (0 at ≤30%, 100 at ≥90%), largest day 7% of HR30 → 100.0 (0 at ≥60%, 100 at ≤15%), distance to peak 0.22 → 0.0 (0 at ≤0.25, 100 at ≥0.9).Average of: share of days with HR > 0 (0 at ≤ 30%, 100 at ≥ 90%), 1 − largest day ÷ HR30 (0 at ≥ 60%, 100 at ≤ 15%) and distance to peak (0 at ≤ 0.25, 100 at ≥ 0.9).
  • Penalty −5 (team_discretion): buyback at the team's discretion.

HR7 is below 50% of its 90-day peak: momentum and divergence are capped at 50. This is not a penalty; the distance already counts in quality.

Penalties−5

−5Buyback at the team's discretionbuyback at the team's discretion

9 rules not applied, 2 wait for research data.

Where the numbers come from
Revenue source
6 active children
DefiLlama adapter per child
Price and market cap
defillama / defillama
latest fetch
Scored on
November 11, 2026
as-of date of the last compute run
On-chain verified
not measurable
checked Nov 12
Protocols behind this token6 at DefiLlama

Per protocol: DefiLlama's methodology text, the distribution type we read from it and the sentence that decided it. The token takes the type of the protocol that returns the most to holders.

  • PancakeSwap Infinity
    Dexs · BSC, Base
    type buyback-burn · source label
    “Buy Back And Burn CAKE: 50% of revenue will be used to buy back and burn CAKE”

    50% of revenue are used to buy back and burn CAKE

    Buy Back And Burn CAKE
    50% of revenue will be used to buy back and burn CAKE
    adapter on GitHub ↗
  • PancakeSwap Lottery
    Luck Games · BSC
    type buyback-burn · source text
    “20% of the lottery amount goes to CAKE buy-back and burn”

    20% of the lottery amount goes to CAKE buy-back and burn

    adapter on GitHub ↗
  • PancakeSwap AMM V3
    Dexs · BSC, Ethereum, Polygon zkEVM, ZKsync Era, Arbitrum, Linea, Base, opBNB, Solana, Monad, Robinhood Chain
    type buyback-burn · source label
    “Buy Back And Burn CAKE: Swap fees collected to buyback and burn CAKE: 15% fees in 0.01%, 0.05% tier pools, 23% fees in 0.25%, 1% tier pools”

    Swap fees collected to buyback and burn CAKE: 15% fees in 0.01%, 0.05% tier pools, 23% fees in 0.25%, 1% tier pools

    Buy Back And Burn CAKE
    Swap fees collected to buyback and burn CAKE: 15% fees in 0.01%, 0.05% tier pools, 23% fees in 0.25%, 1% tier pools
    adapter on GitHub ↗
  • PancakeSwap AMM
    Dexs · BSC, Ethereum, Polygon zkEVM, ZKsync Era, Arbitrum, Linea, Base, opBNB, Aptos, Monad, Robinhood Chain
    type buyback-burn · source label
    “Buy Back And Burn CAKE: 0.0575% of each swap is used to buy back and burn CAKE since 16 June 2022, 0.05% before.”

    0.0575% of each swap is used to buy back and burn CAKE since 16 June 2022, 0.05% before.

    Buy Back And Burn CAKE
    0.0575% of each swap is used to buy back and burn CAKE since 16 June 2022, 0.05% before.
    adapter on GitHub ↗
  • PancakeSwap StableSwap
    Dexs · BSC, Ethereum, Arbitrum
    type buyback-burn · source label
    “Buy Back And Burn CAKE: 40% of swap fees funds CAKE buyback and burn.”

    40% of swap fees (80% of the admin fee) funds CAKE buyback and burn.

    Buy Back And Burn CAKE
    40% of swap fees funds CAKE buyback and burn.
    adapter on GitHub ↗
  • PancakeSwap Prediction
    Prediction Market · BSC
    type buyback-burn · source label
    “Buy Back And Burn CAKE: All the revenue goes to CAKE buyback and burn”

    All the revenue goes to CAKE buyback and burn

    Buy Back And Burn CAKE
    All the revenue goes to CAKE buyback and burn
    adapter on GitHub ↗