Buyback Radar

Orca ORCA

Sell signal activeRank#43▼3Score31

Distribution cut held since Oct 22, before tracking started. paid to holders $18.4k in the week to 2026-11-10 vs $87k per week from 2026-08-12 to 2026-11-03 (21%) while REV7 is $184k ($182k the week before); last payout 2026-11-10. Still open: the payout has not recovered. Also active: Sell signal. See Signals.

Dexs, Solana, Eclipse, 192 days of data

Active signals 2

  • Sell signalsince Nov 1

    Revenue over 30 days $805k, 65% of the 30 days before ($1.2M).

    Gradual decline over 30 days: revenue this week $184k, 1.0× the week before, paid to holders 1.0× the week before. Still open: payout at 11% of its 90-day peak.

  • Distribution cutheld since Oct 22

    Paid to holders this week $18k, 21% of its usual $87k per week. Revenue this week $184k.

    Payout to holders cut: revenue this week $184k, 1.0× the week before, paid to holders 21% of its usual week. Still open: the payout has not recovered.

Market cap

$75.6M

price $1.22 · 7d −14.8% · 30d −41.3%

FDV $91.6M (1.2× market cap)

source defillama

Buyback revenue / year

$1.6M

holders revenue of the last 30 days, $130k, × 365 ÷ 30; estimated from revenue × the share the project states

Buybackbuyback share 16%

DefiLlama books 36.1% of orca-dex's revenue as holders revenue; the project itself says 10% of its revenue. See How the buyback really works.

Buys back 2.1% of its market cap a year (estimated from revenue × the stated share), using 16¢ of every $1 it earns.

Our research: paid partly from the treasury, not only from revenue. Nothing is deducted here, because the data does not show how much. See How the buyback really works.

Multiple

47.8×

peer median 19.5× (Dexs, 13 tokens), against 47.8× here

Run-rate

86.4×

last 7 days $17k × 52 = $875k a year

last week's payout to holders ran at 55% of the 30-day pace: the payout is slowing

What we checked

  1. Valuation

    Multiple 47.8×, 2.5× more expensive than its Dexs peers (median 19.5×, 13 tokens). The group's largest earner Uniswap trades at 37.3×: 1.3× dearer per dollar returned to holders. On total revenue: 7.9×, 2.1× cheaper than the revenue peer median.

  2. Distribution

    Buyback: Revenue buys the token on the market; the tokens stay in circulation (treasury, stakers or LPs). Holders got $130k of $790k revenue in 30 days → buyback share 16%. Our research says part is paid from the treasury; nothing is deducted, because the data does not show how much. DefiLlama: “xORCA Buyback: 10% of the 12% treasury share (1.2% of swap fees), used to buy ORCA for the xORCA vault.”

  3. Sustainability

    Holders were paid on 30 of 30 days (100%); largest single day 11% of the month's holders revenue; paid to holders this week: 10% of the best week in 90 days (more than half below peak). Revenue −12% over 7 days and −36% over 30 days, price −41% over 30 days.

What this does not tell you

The figures come from DefiLlama's adapter for each child protocol. Only a few tokens have an on-chain check (see How the buyback really works); for the rest, whether the tokens were really bought, burned or parked in a treasury wallet is not checked here. Unlocks count where DefiLlama or our research has a vesting schedule; team discretion and liquidity depth only once researched.

Flags

  • Distribution cutheld since Oct 22, before tracking started; paid to holders $18.4k in the week to 2026-11-10 vs $87k per week from 2026-08-12 to 2026-11-03 (21%) while REV7 is $184k ($182k the week before); last payout 2026-11-10. Still open: the payout has not recovered. See Signals
  • Sell signalactive since Nov 1; no variant; REV ratio 1.0×, HR ratio 1.0×. Still open: payout at 11% of its 90-day peak. See Signals
  • Holders revenue estimatedthe project now sends a smaller share of revenue to holders than DefiLlama counts. From the date of that change, holders revenue is estimated as revenue × the share the project states
  • Payout >50% below peakthis week's holders revenue is 10% of its best week in the last 90 days ($164k)
  • Treasury-funded (research)our research says part of the buyback is paid from the treasury. Nothing is deducted here, because the data does not show how much

How the buyback really works

Researched Nov 1, 2026 · 6 wallets: 4 high, 2 medium confidence

  1. The moneyPaid partly from revenue, partly from the treasury
  2. The buyerPartly automatic, partly up to the team
  3. The tokensBought tokens go to stakers

The project says 10% of its revenue goes to buybacks; DefiLlama books 36.1% of orca-dex's revenue as holders revenue.

On-chain: $200k bought back over 30 days = 70% of what DefiLlama reports for the same days.

Method: Helius enhanced transactions: ORCA into the xORCA vault Ce5j… without an xORCA mint in the same transaction (staking deposits left out). Checked November 12, 2026.

Red flags 5

  • Allocation sharply reduced. The tokenholder proposal 'Resourcing Orca for Its Next Phase' (forum 1281, 2026-09-29, Realms proposal 91VPw3...) has on-chain state = Completed (confirmed by the verifier: ProposalV2 account, owner governance program J9uWv..., state 5). New split of protocol fees: 10% programmatically to xORCA, 10% to a team 'Buyback Account' (open-market buybacks at its discretion) and 80% to the team. Previously 40% to xORCA.
  • DefiLlama's calculation dexs/orca still uses HOLDERS_REVENUE_RATE = 0.40 (since 2026-01-13), and docs.orca.so/governance/xorca.md still says 40%. From ~2026-10-20 holders revenue is therefore overstated ~4x.
  • Governance is being centralized: the Council is being dissolved, and ~14.2M ORCA and ~70k SOL move to team control.
  • No address has been published for the xORCA buyback executor or the new team Buyback Account.
  • Mixed funding: alongside fees, a Council-run treasury buyback program from the Fee Treasury has run since July 2025, and that treasury now goes to the team.
Buyback wallets 6
Sources 8

Open the buyback wallets in their explorer and look for regular purchases of the token.

Check it yourself (technical)

Track ORCA inflows (mint orcaEKTdK7LKz57vaAYr9QeNsVEPfiu6QeMU1kektZE) to vault Ce5j11... via Helius (getSignaturesForAddress and parsed transactions) or Solscan Pro over 30 days. Separate reward deposits (vault balance up without an xORCA mint xorcaYqbXUNz3474ubUMJAdu2xgPsew3rUCe5ughT3N in the same tx) from ordinary stakes. Alternative: the xORCA/ORCA exchange rate (vault ORCA / xORCA supply) at the start and end of the period; the increase times supply is the net ORCA added. Revenue is in the Orca stats API (stats-api.mainnet.orca.so/api/whirlpools).

Holders revenue / revenue (30d)
$130k / $790k
last 30 closed days
To holders
Buys back 2.1% of its market cap a year (estimated from revenue × the stated share)
FDV / dilution
$91.6M / 1.2×
FDV ÷ market cap
Price 7d / 30d
−14.8% / −41.3%
Revenue growth 7d / 30d
−12% / −36%
versus the period before
Divergence
0.00
revenue growth minus price growth, 30d
DEX liquidity
$2.0M
DexScreener, representative pools
24h volume
$9.8M
all markets, CoinGecko
Unlocks 30d
—
DefiLlama's schedule does not cover the next 30 days while tokens are still locked
Revenue multiple
7.9×
market cap ÷ revenue per year
Fee multiple
1.0×
market cap ÷ fees per year
Distance to peak
10%
this week ÷ best week of 90 days
Data since
May 4
first day with holders revenue

Holders revenue and price

Holders revenue per day7-day averagePrice (right axis)▲ ▼ signal days (history below)

Multiple over time

today 47.8× (scored) · peer median 19.5×

Market cap at close ÷ (holders revenue of the previous 30 days × 365 ÷ 30), with holders revenue capped at revenue and × the type factor: the same effective multiple as the peer median. Values above 100× are drawn at the top. Bands as on the meter; dashed line = peer median today.

Signal history

Signal history of this token: date, type, price at the signal, price after 7 and 30 days, change since the signal and the outcome
DateSignalPrice thenAfter 7dAfter 30dSinceOutcome
November 2, 2026Sell signalactive$1.50−9%—−19%30-day check: day 10
October 22, 2026Distribution cutactive$1.54−13%—−21%not counted
October 31, 2026Multiple below medianvoided Nov 1: rule change of 1 Nov 2026: it would not open under the current rules$1.53−11%—−20%not counted

Versus peers

Dexs · 13 tokens · median multiple 19.5× · Uniswap is valued 49.0× higher. Per dollar that counts for holders, Orca is 1.3× dearer.

Main-ranking peers only. Multiples count holders revenue capped at revenue, × the type factor (buyback 1 · buyback + burn 1 · burn 0.75 · mixed 0.75 · distribution 0.5 · unclear 0.5 · ve-distribution 0.25).

This token against its main-ranking peers: multiple, revenue multiple, buyback share, holders revenue, market cap and revenue growth
TokenDistributionMultipleRevenue multipleBuyback shareTo holders 30dMarket capRev. growth 30d
Pharaoh Exchangeve / bribes0.3×0.2×100%$1.3M$2.6M−52%
RamsesXMixed0.7×0.5×97%$368k$2.2M+8%
nestDistribution0.8×0.4×100%$869k$4.4M+32%
upve / bribes2.0×1.0×100%$313k$3.9M−68%
ChainflipBuyback + burn5.4×5.4×100%$520k$34.4M+59%
Aerove / bribes8.7×4.0×96%$7.4M$372.0M−6%
PancakeSwapBuyback + burn19.5×12.8×65%$2.4M$563.6M−29%
RaydiumBuyback27.1×16.8×62%$1.3M$425.4M−65%
Curve Financeve / bribes29.3×11.1×94%$2.6M$374.4M+44%
UniswapleaderBuyback + burn37.3×37.3×100%$8.2M$3.71B−20%
Orcathis tokenBuyback47.8×7.9×16%$130k$75.6M−36%
AsterBuyback + burn50.2×∞—$2.8M$1.69B—
MeteoraDistribution180×5.2×18%$458k$161.9M−60%
Score build-up31 of 100

Total score = 35% valuation + 25% momentum + 20% divergence + 20% quality − penalties, clamped to 0–100. Every number here can be recomputed from the figures on this page.

31of 100#43▼3top 84%
Valuation 18.5Momentum 9.3Divergence 0.0Quality 13.3penalties −10= 31.1
Valuation35%
53Valuation 52.9: HR half 21.0 (multiple 47.81×; 100 at ≤3×, 0 at ≥100×, log scale), revenue half 84.8 (revenue peer value 2.15×; 0 at ≤0.33×, 50 at 1×, 100 at ≥3×, log scale).Average of two halves. HR half: linear in log(multiple), 100 at ≤ 3×, 0 at ≥ 100×, 0 without effective HR. Revenue half: linear in log(revenue peer value), 0 at ≤ 0.33×, 50 at 1×, 100 at ≥ 3×; neutral 50 when the peer group falls back to the universe.
Momentum25%capped
37Momentum 37.0: m = 0.5·g7 −0.128 + 0.3·(ln(day jump 0.91) clamped ±1.5 = −0.100) + 0.2·g30 −0.441 = −0.182; 0 at ≤−0.7, 50 at 0, 100 at ≥1.1.m = 0.5·g7 + 0.3·ln(day jump, clamped ±1.5) + 0.2·g30; 0 at m ≤ −0.7, 50 at 0, 100 at ≥ 1.1. Neutral 50 when g7 or g30 is missing; a missing day jump counts as 0.
Divergence20%capped
0Divergence 0.0: d = g30 − p30 = 0.000; 0 at ≤0, 100 at ≥1.5.d = max(0, g30 − p30) when g30 > 0; 0 at d ≤ 0, 100 at d ≥ 1.5, linear.
Quality20%
67Quality 66.7: mean of days HR>0 100% → 100.0 (0 at ≤30%, 100 at ≥90%), largest day 11% of HR30 → 100.0 (0 at ≥60%, 100 at ≤15%), distance to peak 0.10 → 0.0 (0 at ≤0.25, 100 at ≥0.9).Average of: share of days with HR > 0 (0 at ≤ 30%, 100 at ≥ 90%), 1 − largest day ÷ HR30 (0 at ≥ 60%, 100 at ≤ 15%) and distance to peak (0 at ≤ 0.25, 100 at ≥ 0.9).
  • Penalty −10 (hr_estimated): HR estimated from revenue × the claimed holders share.

HR7 is below 50% of its 90-day peak: momentum and divergence are capped at 50. This is not a penalty; the distance already counts in quality.

Penalties−10

−10HR estimated from revenue × claimed buyback percentageHR estimated from revenue × the claimed holders share

9 rules not applied, 2 wait for research data.

Where the numbers come from
Revenue source
1 active child
DefiLlama adapter per child
Price and market cap
defillama / defillama
latest fetch
Scored on
November 11, 2026
as-of date of the last compute run
On-chain verified
yes
checked Nov 12
Protocols behind this token1 at DefiLlama

Per protocol: DefiLlama's methodology text, the distribution type we read from it and the sentence that decided it. The token takes the type of the protocol that returns the most to holders.

  • Orca DEX
    Dexs · Solana, Eclipse
    type buyback · source label
    “xORCA Buyback: 10% of the 12% treasury share (1.2% of swap fees), used to buy ORCA for the xORCA vault.”

    10% of the 12% treasury share (1.2% of swap fees), used to buy ORCA and deposit it into the xORCA vault. 10% from 30 October 2026 after the October 2026 tokenholder vote, 40% from 13 January 2026, 20% before.

    xORCA Buyback
    10% of the 12% treasury share (1.2% of swap fees), used to buy ORCA for the xORCA vault. 10% from 30 October 2026 after the October 2026 tokenholder vote, 40% from 13 January 2026, 20% before.
    adapter on GitHub ↗